NRF: Retail Sales to Top $5 Trillion in 2024
The National Retail Federation today forecast that retail sales will increase in 2024 between 2.5 and 3.5 percent to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion.
The announcement was made during NRF’s fourth annual State of Retail & the Consumer virtual discussion on the health of the American consumers and the retail industry.
“The resiliency of consumers continues to power the American economy, and we are confident there will be moderate but steady growth through the end of the year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement. “Successful retailers offer consumers products and services when, where, and how they want to shop with prices they want to pay.”
The 2024 sales forecast compares with 3.6 percent annual sales growth of $5.1 trillion in 2023. The 2024 forecast is in line with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6 percent.
Non-store and online sales, which are included in the total figure, are expected to grow between 7 and 9 percent year-over-year to a range of $1.47 trillion to $1.50 trillion. That compares with non-store and online sales of $1.38 trillion in 2023.
NRF projects full-year GDP growth of around 2.3 percent, a slower speed than the 2.5 percent in 2023 but strong enough to sustain job growth. Inflation prices are also expected to moderate to 2.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, due to a cooling economy, the labor and product market coming into better balance and retreating housing costs.
“The economy is primarily supported by consumers who have shown much greater resilience than expected, and it’s hard to be bearish on the consumer,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “The question for 2024 ultimately is, will consumer spending maintain its resilience?”
A tight labor market, with its robust job growth and wage gains fueling consumer spending, is expected to cool in 2024. With the pace of the economy slowing in 2024, NRF expects about 100,000 fewer jobs on average per month compared with 2023 and the unemployment rate to average 4 percent for the full year.